'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 11, 2020

MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Ulysses' (Vamco) is forecast to intensify into a typhoon within the next 12 hours and reach its peak intensity of 130-155 km/h prior to landfall over Polillo Islands and mainland Quezon, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Wednesday, November 11, 2020.

'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 11, 2020
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Ulysses as of 4:40 am, November 11, 2020

Severe Tropical Storm 'Ulysses' will move generally westward throughout the forecast period and pass over the seas north of Catanduanes between this morning and afternoon and north off Camarines Provinces between this afternoon or evening.

SEE ALSO#WalangPasok: Class, work suspensions on November 12, 2020

Due to the orientation of the track forecast, these provinces may fall within the inner rainbands of this storm during the passage.

UPDATETyphoon 'Ulysses' endangers Quezon province

'Ulysses' may slightly weaken as it crosses mainland Luzon due to the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges along its projected path. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon during its traverse.

At 4:00 am today, the center of 'Bagyong Ulysses' was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 180 km Northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 415 km East of Infanta, Quezon.

It has maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 125 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h.

Forecast Positions
  • 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 20 km North Northeast of Infanta, Quezon
  • 48 Hour (Friday morning): 355 km West of Iba, Zambales
  • 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 790 km West of Iba, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • 96 Hour (Sunday morning): 1,275 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)

'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 11, 2020


TCWS #2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

  • the southern portion of Quirino (Maddela, Nagtipunan)
  • the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur, Aritao, Santa Fe, Alfonso Castaneda)
  • the eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, San Manuel, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan, Tayug, Santa Maria, Balungao, Asingan, Urdaneta City, Malasiqui, Bayambang, Basista, Bautista, Alcala, Villasis, Rosales, Binalonan, Laoac, Santo Tomas)
  • the southern portion of Zambales (Botolan, Cabangan, San Felipe, San Narciso, San Marcelino, San Antonio, Castillejos, Subic, Olongapo City)
  • Bataan
  • Tarlac
  • Pampanga
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Aurora
  • Bulacan
  • Metro Manila
  • Rizal
  • Laguna
  • Cavite
  • Batangas
  • Quezon including Polillo Islands
  • Marinduque
  • the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island
  • the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
  • Camarines Norte
  • Camarines Sur
  • Albay
  • Sorsogon
  • Catanduanes
  • Burias and Ticao Islands

TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

  • Isabela
  • the rest of Quirino
  • the rest of Nueva Vizcaya
  • Kalinga
  • Mountain Province
  • Ifugao
  • Benguet
  • Abra
  • Ilocos Sur
  • La Union
  • the rest of Pangasinan
  • the rest of Zambales
  • the rest of Occidental Mindoro
  • the rest of Oriental Mindoro
  • Romblon
  • the rest of Masbate

  • Northern Samar
  • the northern portion of Samar (Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An, Tarangnan, Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao), and the northern portion of Eastern Samar (Maslog, Dolores, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)

'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 11, 2020

Hazards affecting land areas

Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the severe tropical storm, the areas under TCWS #2 will be experiencing damaging gale-force to storm-force winds, while those under TCWS #1 will have strong breeze to near gale conditions.

Given the likelihood of intensification into a typhoon in the next 12 to 24 hours, TCWS #3 may be raised over Metro Manila and portions of Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and Bicol Region once 'Ulysses' is upgraded to typhoon category.

In other areas, the rest of Northern Luzon will be experiencing strong breeze to gale-force winds due to the surge of the Northeast Monsoon.

Heavy rainfall: Between this early morning and this late afternoon, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.

Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Albay, Sorsogon, Quezon including Polillo Islands, and Burias and Ticao Islands.

Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

Between this late afternoon and tomorrow early morning, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Aurora, Bulacan, Pampanga, and Bataan.

Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, mainland Cagayan Valley, Catanduanes, Marinduque, the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.

Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall.

Storm surge: There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of
  • up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and the northern and eastern coastal areas of Camarines Sur
  • up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, northern portions of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island, Marinduque, Romblon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Albay, and Sorsogon, and the remaining coastal areas of Camarines Sur.

These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

In the next 24 hours, rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar currently not under TCWS #1.

The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will also bring rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and rough seas (2.5 to 3.5 m) over the seaboards of Kalayaan Islands. Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters.

Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian Islands, and the eastern seaboards of Mindanao.

Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

'Bagyong Ulysses' is the Philippines' 21st tropical cyclone for 2020 and third for November.

The weather bureau advised of more cyclones that could enter PAR until December.

PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.

— The Summit Express

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