'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 4, 2020

MANILA, Philippines –
'Bagyong Siony' (Atsani) continues to move slowly over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Wednesday, November 4, 2020.

'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 4, 2020
Satellite image of Tropical Storm 'Siony' (Atsani) as of 4:30 am, November 4, 2020. PAGASA

Tropical Storm 'Siony' is forecast to move slowly or remain almost stationary in the next 12 hours.

SEE ALSO'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 5, 2020

Afterwards, 'Siony' will move generally westward or west-northwestward towards the Luzon Strait and Extreme Northern Luzon. This will bring the center of the tropical storm over or very close to the Batanes and Babuyan Islands between tomorrow evening and Friday morning. As such, a landfall scenario over these localities remains likely.

At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Siony' was estimated based on all available data at 700 km East of Basco, Batanes.

'Siony' has maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 105 km/h. It is moving South Southwestward slowly.

On the forecast track, 'Siony' will leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Friday afternoon or evening.

It is forecast to intensify into severe tropical storm in the next 24 hours and reach its peak intensity of 100-110 km/h tomorrow prior to its landfall or close approach over Extreme Northern Luzon. However, intensification into typhoon category is not ruled out at this time.

Forecast Positions
  • 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 520 km East of Calayan, Cagayan
  • 48 Hour (Friday morning):25 km Northwest of Calayan, Cagayan
  • 72 Hour (Saturday morning): 595 km West of Basco, Batanes (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • 96 Hour (Sunday morning): 910 km West of Northern Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
  • 120 Hour (Monday morning): 1,390 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)

'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 4, 2020


TCWS #1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)
  • the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga)
  • the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Balintang Island, Babuyan Island, Didicas Island, and Camiguin Isl. including their adjoining islets)

'Bagyong Siony' PAGASA weather update November 4, 2020

Hazards affecting land areas

Strong winds: In the next 24 hours, the northeasterlies enhanced by Tropical Storms 'Rolly' and 'Siony' will bring strong breeze to gale-force winds with higher gusts over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern coastal areas of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte.

In anticipation of strong breeze to near gale conditions associated with the tropical storm, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #1 is now in effect for several areas in Extreme Northern Luzon.

Based on all available meteorological data, the highest wind signal to be raised will be TCWS #2. However, because intensification into typhoon category remains a potential scenario at this time, the possibility of hoisting TCWS #3 in areas near or along the projected track of the storm is not ruled out.

Heavy rains: The combined effects of the northeasterlies and the trough of 'Siony' will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela.

Flooding (including flashfloods) and rain-induced landslides may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall from tropical cyclones 'Pepito', 'Quinta', and 'Rolly'.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

The combined effects of two storms and the enhanced northeasterlies will bring rough to very rough seas (2.8 to 5.0 m) over the entire seaboards of Northern Luzon, the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur, the northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes, and the seaboards of Aurora, Camarines Norte, Kalayaan Islands, and northern Quezon (including the northern and eastern coastal waters of Polillo Islands).

Sea travel is risky over these waters, especially for those using small seacrafts.

Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the western seaboard of Central Luzon, the eastern and western seaboards of Southern Luzon, and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao.

Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

'Bagyong Siony' is the Philippines' 19th tropical cyclone for 2020.

On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.

However, the weather bureau advised of the possibility of 3 cyclones this month and 2 cyclones in December that could enter PAR.

PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.

— The Summit Express

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