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    'Bagyong Karding' PAGASA weather update September 23, 2022

    MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Karding' slightly accelerates westward while maintaining its strength, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am update on Friday, September 23, 2022.

    PAGASA warned that some areas in northern and central Luzon could be placed under wind signal 3.

    Bagyong Karding satellite image
    Satellite image of Tropical Storm 'Karding' as of 4:30 am, September 23, 2022. PAGASA

    At 4:00 am today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Karding' was estimated based on all available data at 1,235 km East of Northern Luzon.

    'Karding' has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, and central pressure of 1000 hPa. It is moving westward at 10 km/h. Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 130 km from the center.

    TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

    'Bagyong Karding' is forecast to track generally westward while gradually accelerating towards the east coast of Northern Luzon, where it is likely to make landfall on Sunday.

    Bagyong Karding forecast

    After crossing the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon throughout Sunday, the tropical cyclone will continue tracking over the West Philippine Sea.

    This tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually intensify within the period prior to landfall over Northern Luzon. Per latest intensity forecast, it is likely to make landfall as a high-end tropical storm or a low-end severe tropical storm. Frictional effects of the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon may result in some slight weakening, although it will most likely be at tropical storm category once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.

    Bagyong Karding track and intensity

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS


    Heavy Rainfall

    Sunday midnight through morning: Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan, and Isabela.

    Rest of Sunday through Monday early morning: Moderate to heavy rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Provinces, and La Union. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the northern portion of Aurora and the rest of Ilocos Region and Cagayan Valley.

    Under these conditions, isolated to scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.

    Due to the Southwest Monsoon partly influenced by 'Karding', occasional rains are also possible beginning Sunday over most of Southern Luzon and Visayas, especially over their western sections. As such, the issuance of Weather Advisory for Southwest Monsoon is not ruled out.

    Severe Winds

    Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals may be hoisted as early as tonight over the eastern portions of Northern and Central Luzon in anticipation of winds of at least strong breeze to near gale strength associated with the approaching tropical cyclone.

    Per latest track and intensity forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 2. However, the potential hoisting of a Wind Signal No. 3 is not ruled out at this time.

    HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

    A preceding northeasterlies may bring moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.5 m) over the northern and western seaboards of Northern Luzon by tomorrow.

    On Sunday, moderate to rough seas will continue for the seaboards of Northern Luzon (1.2 to 4.0 m) and may begin prevailing over the eastern seaboard of Central Luzon (1.2 to 3.0 m) due to the approaching tropical storm.

    Such condition may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to monitor for updates, take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions during the said period.

    TROPICAL CYCLONES

    'Karding' is the Philippines’ 11th tropical cyclone for 2022. It developed into tropical depression on Thursday, September 22 east of Central Luzon.

    On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.

    — The Summit Express

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