'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 12, 2020

MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Ulysses' (Vamco) will continue crossing the landmass of Central Luzon and expected to emerge over the western seaboard of Zambales this morning, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 am bulletin on Thursday, November 12, 2020.

'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 12, 2020
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Ulysses as of 5:00 am, November 12, 2020. PAGASA

NOTE: Destructive winds and heavy to intense with at times torrential rainfall associated with the region of inner rainbands and eyewall of the typhoon will be experienced over central and southern portions of Aurora, the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, and Rizal within the next three hours. Moderate to heavy damage to infrastructure and vegetation is expected.

Landfall Information
  • First landfall: Patnanungan, Quezon at 10:30 pm, November 11
  • Second landfall: Burdeos, Quezon at 11:20 pm, November 11
  • Third landfall: General Nakar, Quezon at 1:40 am, November 12

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The typhoon is forecast slightly weaken while crossing Central Luzon due to frictional effects in the presence of the Sierra Madre and Zambales Mountain Ranges. However, it is likely to remain a typhoon during its traverse of the Luzon landmass.

On the forecast track, the typhoon may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning or afternoon.

At 4:00 am today, the center of the eye of Typhoon 'Ulysses' was located based on all available data including those from Subic and Benguet Doppler Weather Radars in the vicinity of San Antonio, Nueva Ecija.

Typhoon 'Ulysses' has maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 255 km/h. It is moving West Northwestward at 25 km/h.

Forecast Positions
  • 24 Hour (Tomorrow morning): 395 km West of Iba, Zambales
  • 48 Hour (Saturday morning): 845 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)

'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 12, 2020


TCWS No. 3 (121-170 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 18 hours)

  • the southern portion of Quirino (Maddela, Nagtipunan)
  • the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax Del Norte, Dupax Del Sur)
  • Pangasinan
  • Nueva Ecija
  • Aurora
  • Tarlac
  • Zambales
  • Bataan
  • Pampanga
  • Bulacan
  • Metro Manila
  • Rizal
  • Cavite
  • Laguna
  • Batangas
  • northern and central portions of Quezon (San Antonio, Tiaong, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Tayabas City, Lucban, Mauban, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Atimonan, Perez, Alabat, Plaridel, Agdangan, Real, Infanta, General Nakar) including Polillo Islands

TCWS No. 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours)

  • the central and southern portions of Isabela (Mallig, Quirino, Ilagan, Roxas, Burgos, Gamu, Palanan, San Mariano, Dinapigue, San Guillermo, Benito Soliven, Naguilian, Reina Mercedes, Luna, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, Cauayan City, San Mateo, Alicia, Angadanan, Echague, Jones, San Agustin, San Isidro, Ramon, Santiago City, Cordon)
  • the rest of Quirino
  • the rest of Nueva Vizcaya
  • Mountain Province
  • Ifugao
  • Benguet
  • the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Cervantes, Quirino, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Santiago, Banayoyo, Candon City, Galimuyod, Gregorio Del Pilar, Salcedo, Santa Lucia, Santa Cruz, Sigay, Suyo, Tagudin, Alilem, Sugpon)
  • La Union
  • the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Island
  • the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Pola, Victoria, Naujan, Baco, Calapan City, San Teodoro, Puerto Galera)
  • Marinduque
  • the rest of Quezon
  • Camarines Norte
  • the western portion of Camarines Sur (Pamplona, Pasacao, Libmanan, Cabusao, Sipocot, Lupi, Ragay, Del Gallego)

TCWS No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours)

  • the rest of Isabela
  • Kalinga
  • Abra
  • the rest of Ilocos Sur
  • the rest of Occidental Mindoro
  • the rest of Oriental Mindoro
  • Romblon
  • the rest of Camarines Sur
  • the western portion of Albay (Tabaco City, Malilipot, Guinobatan, Pio Duran, Ligao City, Oas, Polangui, Tiwi, Malinao, Libon)
  • Burias Island

'Bagyong Ulysses' PAGASA weather update November 12, 2020

TCWS No. 1 in other areas is hereby lifted.

Hazards affecting land areas

Strong winds: Throughout the passage of the typhoon, destructive typhoon-force winds will be experiencing in areas under TCWS No. 3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.

The surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring strong breeze to gale-force winds over the rest of Northern Luzon.

Heavy rainfall

Until noon today, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, and Central Luzon.

Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, mainland Cagayan Valley, Babuyan Islands, Pangasinan, Marinduque, and the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Visayas and rest of Luzon.

Between noon today and tonight, moderate to heavy rains over Cordillera Administrative Region, the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela, Zambales, Bataan, Aurora, Metro Manila, Cavite, the western portion of Batangas, and the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Western Visayas and the rest of Luzon.

Flooding (including flashfloods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards and/or those that received significant antecedent rainfall.

Storm surge: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect. There is a high risk of storm surge with heights of
up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Aurora, northern Quezon including Polillo Islands, Cavite, Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, and Zambales, and
up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Isabela, La Union, Pangasinan, Batangas, the rest of Quezon, Marinduque, and the northern portion of Mindoro Provinces including Lubang Island.

These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and/or breaking waves near the coast, can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation. Moreover, there is also a moderate risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay.

Hazards affecting coastal waters

Within the next 24 hours, the combined effects of Typhoon 'Ulysses' and the surge of the Northeast Monsoon will bring:
  • rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) over the seaboards of areas under TCWS and the northern seaboard of Northern Samar
  • rough to high seas (3.0 to 6.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon, and
  • rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 4.5 m) over the western seaboard of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands and the seaboards of Bicol Region not under TCWS.

Sea travel is risky for all types of vessels over these waters.

Moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao, the seaboards of Cuyo Islands, and the western seaboard of Panay Island.

Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

'Bagyong Ulysses' is the Philippines' 21st tropical cyclone for 2020 and third for November.

The weather bureau advised of more cyclones that could enter PAR until December.

PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.

— The Summit Express

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