MANILA, Philippines – La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific may develop as early as September 2025, according to state weather bureau PAGASA.
Model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions from September-October-November until October-November-December.
PAGASA explained that La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by unusually colder sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific.
The bureau noted that ENSO-neutral conditions are still likely to persist until the August-September-October 2025 season.
When the probability of La Niña formation within six months reaches at least 55%, PAGASA issues a La Niña Watch.
Historically, La Niña has been associated with more tropical cyclones, above-normal rainfall, and increased risks of floods and landslides.
Communities in low-lying and landslide-prone areas are advised to prepare for possible impacts.
DOST-PAGASA assured that it will continue monitoring developments and provide updates on local climate conditions.
La Niña episodes were present for several months in 2024 and early 2025.
— The Summit Express