La Niña ends, rainy season is coming

MANILA, Philippines – La Niña has ended, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced during the climate outlook forum on May 26.
La Niña ends, rainy season is coming

La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño, is characterized by below-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean near the equator, a result of shifting wind patterns in the atmosphere. It brought above normal rain in some parts of the country since October last year.

“La Niña has ended and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail in June, July and August (67% chance),” said Ana Liza Solis, chief of PAGASA’s climate monitoring and prediction section.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

The ENSO-neutral phase means neither El Niño or La Niña is prevailing.

The onset of the rainy season associated with the Southwest monsoon is expected to commence soon, PAGASA said.

Rainfall forecast:

June – August 2021 - generally near normal rainfall conditions except for patches of below normal rainfall in Luzon for June;

September 2021 – generally near normal rainfall conditions except for below normal in some portion of western Luzon and above normal in parts of Bicol, central and eastern Visayas and CARAGA region;

October 2021 – generally near normal in most parts of the country (52 provinces) while in the central and southern Luzon and eastern Visayas are likely to receive above normal rainfall conditions;

November 2021 - generally above normal in most parts of Luzon and some portions of Visayas (Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo and Negros Or.) and Mindanao (Davao de Oro, Davao Or., South Cotabato, Sarangani and Basilan) while near normal for the rest of the country.

Temperature forecast ranges from slightly below average to above average is expected during the forecast period.

The weather bureu said 11 to 15 Tropical Cyclones are expected to enter/develop in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during the forecast period (June – November 2021).
  • June 2021: 1 to 3
  • July 2021: 2 to 4
  • August 2021: 2 or 3
  • September 2021: 2 or 3
  • October 2021: 2 or 3
  • November 2021: 2 or 3

Climate Outlook 2021 by TheSummitExpress on Scribd

— The Summit Express

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