MANILA, Philippines –
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' (Goni), 2020's strongest storm on Earth, makes a second landfall over Tiwi, Albay at 7:20 am today, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 8:00 am bulletin on Sunday, November 1.
The center of this typhoon will cross the Camarines Provinces before heading towards Marinduque-Southern Quezon area this afternoon.
11AM UPDATE: 'Rolly' weakens into typhoon; Signal No. 4 up in 19 areas
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| Satellite image of Super Typhoon Rolly (Goni) as of 7:50 am, November 1, 2020. PAGASA |
Catastrophic violent winds and intense to torrential rainfall associated with the region of the eyewall and inner rainbands of the typhoon is prevailing or expected within the next 12 hours over Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, the northern portion of Sorsogon, Burias Island, Marinduque, the central and southern portions of Quezon, Laguna, and the eastern portion of Batangas. This a particularly dangerous situation for these areas.
The center of this typhoon will cross the Camarines Provinces before heading towards Marinduque-Southern Quezon area this afternoon.
11AM UPDATE: 'Rolly' weakens into typhoon; Signal No. 4 up in 19 areas
'Bagyong Rolly' is forecast to exit the mainland Luzon landmass and emerge over the Philippine Sea between tonight and tomorrow early morning.
During its traverse of Southern Luzon, 'Rolly' is forecast to weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
At 7:20 am today, the center of the eye of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' was located based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar in the vicinity of Tiwi, Albay.
Super Typhoon 'Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 310 km/h. It is moving Westward at 25 km/h.
Forecast Position
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS)
TCWS No. 5 (Very strong winds of more than 220 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours)
Impact of the Wind
TCWS No. 4 (Winds of greater than 171 km/h up to 220 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours)
TCWS No. 3 (Winds of greater than 121 km/h up to 170 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours)
TCWS No. 2 (Winds of greater than 61 km/h and up to 120 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours)
TCWS No. 1 (Winds of 30-60 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours)
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Leyte, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.
Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #4 and #5, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.
Storm surge in the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of the following:
Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 7:00 AM today, the Tropical Storm "Atsani' re-intensified into a tropical storm and at 4:00 AM, its center was estimated at 1,205 km East of Southern Luzon.
It currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
Once inside the PAR, 'Atsani' will be given the domestic name 'Siony'. It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours.
'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
During its traverse of Southern Luzon, 'Rolly' is forecast to weaken but will emerge as a typhoon over the West Philippine Sea.
At 7:20 am today, the center of the eye of Super Typhoon 'Rolly' was located based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar in the vicinity of Tiwi, Albay.
Super Typhoon 'Rolly' has maximum sustained winds of 225 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 310 km/h. It is moving Westward at 25 km/h.
Forecast Position
- 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 150 km West of Subic Bay
- 48 Hour(Tuesday morning):625 km West of Subic Bay (OUTSIDE PAR)
- 72 Hour(Wednesday morning): 970 km West of Central Luzon (OUTSIDE PAR)
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS)
TCWS No. 5 (Very strong winds of more than 220 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours)
- Albay
- Camarines Sur
Impact of the Wind
- Widespread damage to high-risk structures.
- Very heavy damage to medium-risk structures.
- Heavy damage to low-risk structures.
- Almost total damage to structures of light materials, especially in highly exposed coastal areas.
- Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Severe and extensive window and door damage.
- Most residential and institutional buildings of mixed construction may be severely damaged.
- Electrical power distribution and communication services severely disrupted.
- All signs/billboards blown down.
- Total damage to banana plantation.
- Most tall trees are broken, uprooted or defoliated.
- Coconut trees are stooped, broken or uprooted.
- Few plants and trees survived.
TCWS No. 4 (Winds of greater than 171 km/h up to 220 km/h may be expected in at least 12 hours)
- Catanduanes
- Camarines Norte
- the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, Sorsogon City, Prieto Diaz, Gubat, Barcelona, Juban, Casiguran, Magallanes)
- Burias Island
- the central and southern portions of Quezon (Real, Mauban, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag, Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, San Antonio, Tiaong, Dolores, Candelaria, Sariaya, Tayabas City, Sampaloc, Lucban, Lucena City, Pagbilao, Atimonan, Padre Burgos, Agdangan, Unisan, Plaridel, Gumaca, Lopez, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, San Francisco, Mulanay, Catanauan, General Luna, Macalelon, Pitogo)
- the central and southern portions of Rizal (Tanay, Antipolo City, San Mateo, Cainta, Taytay, Binangonan, Teresa, Morong, Cardona, Baras, Jala-Jala, Pililla, Angono)
- Batangas
- Cavite
- Metro Manila
- Laguna
- Marinduque
- the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Corcuera, Banton)
- the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog)
- the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, Calapan City, Naujan, Pola, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan)
TCWS No. 3 (Winds of greater than 121 km/h up to 170 km/h may be expected in at least 18 hours)
- the rest of Sorsogon
- the northern portion of Masbate (Mobo, Masbate City, Milagros, Uson, Baleno, Aroroy, Mandaon) including Ticao Island
- the rest of Quezon including Polillo Island
- the rest of Rizal
- Bulacan
- Pampanga
- Bataan
- the southern portion of Zambales (San Marcelino, San Felipe, Olongapo City, Subic, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, Botolan, Cabangan)
- the central portion of Romblon (Calatrava, San Andres, San Agustin, Romblon, Magdiwang, San Fernando, Cajidiocan)
- the central portion of Occidental Mindoro (Sablayan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz, Paluan) including Lubang Island
- the central portion of Oriental Mindoro (Gloria, Bansud, Bongabong)
- Northern Samar
TCWS No. 2 (Winds of greater than 61 km/h and up to 120 km/h may be expected in at least 24 hours)
- Aurora
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- Benguet
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- the rest of Zambales
- Tarlac
- Nueva Ecija
- the rest of Oriental Mindoro
- the rest of Occidental Mindoro
- the rest of Romblon
- the rest of Masbate
- the northern portion of Samar (Catbalogan City, Jiabong, Motiong, Paranas, Hinabangan, San Sebastian, Tarangnan, Pagsanghan, San Jorge, San Jose de Buan, Matuguinao, Gandara, Santa Margarita, Calbayog City, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An)
- the northern portion of Eastern Samar (San Julian, Sulat, Taft, Can-Avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, San Policarpo, Arteche, Jipapad)
- the extreme northern portion of Antique (Pandan, Libertad, Caluya)
- the northwestern portion of Aklan (Buruanga, Malay, Nabas, Ibajay)
TCWS No. 1 (Winds of 30-60 km/h may be expected in at least 36 hours)
- mainland Cagayan
- Isabela
- Apayao
- Kalinga
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Abra
- Ilocos Norte
- Ilocos Sur
- Calamian Islands
- the rest of the northern portion of Antique (Sebaste, Culasi, Tibiao, Barbaza, Laua-An)
- the rest of Aklan
- Capiz
- the northern portion of Iloilo (Lemery, Sara, Concepcion, San Dionisio, Batad, Estancia, Balasan, Carles)
- the northern portion of Cebu (San Remigio, Bogo City, Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan Islands
- Biliran
- the rest of Samar
- the rest of Eastern Samar
- the northern portion of Leyte (San Isidro, Tabango, Villaba, Matag-Ob, Palompon, Ormoc City, Pastrana, Palo, Calubian, Leyte, Kananga, Capoocan, Carigara, Jaro, Tunga, Barugo, Alangalang, Santa Fe, Tacloban City, Babatngon, San Miguel)
Hazards affecting land areas
Rainfall: Today, the passage of Typhoon 'Rolly' will bring heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, Bataan, Bulacan, Aurora, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Biliran, and the eastern portions of mainland Cagayan and Isabela.
Moderate to heavy rains with at times intense rains will be experienced over Cordillera Administrative Region, Leyte, and the rest of mainland Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.
Light to moderate with at times heavy rains will be experienced over Caraga, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Luzon and Visayas. Flooding (including flash floods), rain-induced landslides, and sediment-laden streamflows (i.e. lahar) may occur during heavy or prolonged rainfall especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards.
Strong winds: Very destructive to devastating typhoon-force winds will be experienced in areas under Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS) #4 and #5, destructive typhoon-force winds in areas under TCWS #3, damaging gale- to storm-force winds in areas under TCWS #2, and strong breeze to near gale conditions in areas under TCWS #1.
Elsewhere, strong breeze to near gale conditions due to the northeasterlies will be experienced over the rest of Northern Luzon that are not under TCWS #1.
Storm surge in the next 24 hours, there is a high risk of storm surge of the following:
- more than 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Catanduanes and Camarines Norte and the northern coastal areas of Quezon including Polillo Islands and Camarines Sur
- up to 3.0 m over the coastal areas of Metro Manila, Cavite, Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, the southeastern coastal area of Batangas (facing Tayabas Bay), and most of the southern coastal areas of Quezon
- up to 2.0 m over the coastal areas of Marinduque, Lubang Island, Albay, Masbate (including Ticao and Burias Islands), Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar and the remaining coastal areas of Quezon, Camarines Sur, and Batangas.
Moreover, there is also a moderate to high risk of seiche or storm surge over the coastal areas surrounding Laguna de Bay and Taal Lake. These storm surges, which may be accompanied by swells and breaking waves reaching the coast can cause life-threatening and damaging coastal inundation.
Hazards affecting coastal waters
Today, rough to phenomenal seas (2.5 to 16.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboard of areas where TCWS is in effect and rough to very rough seas (2.5 to 5.0 m) over the remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas (that are not under TCWS) and Caraga.
Sea travel is risky for all types of seacrafts over these waters, especially those under TCWS.
Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 2.5 m) will be experienced over remaining seaboards of the country. Mariners of small seacrafts are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.
Other tropical systems being monitored
At 7:00 AM today, the Tropical Storm "Atsani' re-intensified into a tropical storm and at 4:00 AM, its center was estimated at 1,205 km East of Southern Luzon.
It currently has maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 80 km/h.
It is moving west-northwestward at 30 km/h and is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this morning.
Once inside the PAR, 'Atsani' will be given the domestic name 'Siony'. It remains less likely to affect any portion of the country over the next 2 to 3 days. It is likely to intensify into a severe tropical storm in the next 24 to 36 hours.
'Bagyong Rolly' is the Philippines' 18th tropical cyclone for 2020, and the 5th for October.
On average, there are 20 tropical cyclones that could form or enter the PAR each year. Only half of those are projected to make landfall.
PAGASA declared the onset of rainy season on June 12.
— The Summit Express
