'Bagyong Ursula' PAGASA weather update December 23, 2019

MANILA, Philippines – 'Bagyong Ursula' (international name: Phanfone) has slightly intensified as it moves west-northwest towards Eastern Visayas, state weather bureau PAGASA announced in its 5:00 pm update on Monday, December 23, 2019.

Satellite image of Tropical Storm Ursula
Satellite image of Tropical Storm Ursula as of 4:50 pm on December 23, 2019 | via DOST-PAGASA

At 4:00 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm 'Ursula' was estimated based on all available data at 670 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.

'Bagyong Ursula' has maximum sustained winds of up to 75 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 90 km/h. It is moving West Northwest at 30 km/h.

Forecast Positions

  • 24 Hour (Tomorrow afternoon): 75 km East Northeast of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
  • 48 Hour (Wednesday afternoon):20 km Southwest of San Jose, Occidental Mindoro
  • 72 Hour (Thursday afternoon): 355 km West Southwest of Subic, Zambales
  • 96 Hour (Friday afternoon):515 km West of Subic, Zambales
  • 120 Hour (Saturday afternoon):745 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)

Track of Tropical Storm Ursula | via DOST-PAGASA
Track of Tropical Storm Ursula | via DOST-PAGASA

The weather system is forecast to gradually intensify to at most Severe Tropical Storm category prior to landfall over Eastern Visayas tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Tropical cyclone wind signal No. 2 (61-120 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 24 hours) is up over Eastern Samar (Guiuan).

Signal No. 1 (30-60 km/h winds prevailing or expected in 36 hours) was raised over these areas:

  • Southern portion of Quezon (Buenavista, Calauag, Catanauan, General Luna, Guinayangan, Lopez, Macalelon, Mulanay, San Andres, San Francisco, San Narciso, Tagkawayan)
  • Camarines Sur
  • Camarines Norte
  • Catanduanes
  • Albay
  • Marinduque
  • Romblon
  • Sorsogon
  • Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands
  • Northern Samar
  • rest of Eastern Samar
  • Biliran
  • Leyte
  • Southern Leyte
  • Northern Cebu (Carmen, Asturias, Tuburan, Catmon, Sogod, Borbon, Tabuelan, Tabogon, San Remigio, Bogo, Medellin, Daanbantayan, Bantayan Islands, Camotes Islands)
  • Central Cebu (Aloguinsan, Carcar, Pinamungahan, San Fernando, Naga, Toledo, Minglanila, Balamban, Talisay, Cebu City, Cordova, Lapu-Lapu, Mandaue, Consolacion, Liloan, Compostela, Danao )
  • northeastern Bohol (Inabanga, Danao, Dagohoy, Pilar, Guindulman, Anda, Candijay, Alicia, Buenavista, Jetafe, Talibon, Trinidad, Bien Unido, San Miguel, Ubay, Mabini, Pres. Carlos P. Garcia)
  • Aklan
  • Antique
  • Capiz
  • Iloilo
  • Guimaras
  • northern Negros Occidental (Bacolod, Bago, Cadiz, Calatrava, Enrique B. Magalona, Escalante, La Carlota, La Castellana, Manapla, Moises Padilla, Binalbagan, Hinigaran, Isabela, Murcia, Pontevedra, Pulupandan, Sagay, Salvador Benedicto, San Carlos, San Enrique, Silay, Talisay, Toboso, Valladolid, Victorias)
  • and northern Negros Oriental (Canlaon, Guihulngan, Jimalaud, La Libertad, Vallehermoso
  • Dinagat Islands
  • Surigao del Norte including Siargao Islands

Rainfall Outlook

Between tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday (25 December) morning: Moderate to heavy rains over Dinagat Islands, Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, Eastern Visayas, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, and the northern portions of Cebu and Negros Occidental. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over Bicol Region, Quezon, Marinduque and the rest of Visayas and Surigao del Norte.

Between Wednesday morning and late evening: Moderate to heavy rains over Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and northern portion of Palawan inlcuding Cuyo and Calamian Islands. Light to moderate with intermittent heavy rains over CALABARZON.

Strong Winds

Damaging winds associated with this Tropical Storm may begin to affect the areas under TCWS #2 tomorrow afternoon. This may bring light to moderate to high risk structures.

Strong winds may begin to affect: northeastern Mindanao and the rest of Eastern Visayas tomorrow morning; southern portion of Bicol Region and some portions of Central Visayas tomorrow afternoon; some portions of Western Visayas tomorrow evening. This may bring light damage to medium to high-risk structures.

Other Hazards and Information

Suspension of maritime activities may be experienced in areas where TCWS is in effect. TCWS No. 1 may be raised over Oriental Mindoro in the next Severe Weather Bulletin.

Moderate to rough seas will prevail over the eastern seaboards of the country today. However, rough to very rough seas may be experienced over the northern and eastern seaboards of Bicol Region and the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas and Caraga Region beginning tonight or tomorrow morning. As such, sea travel is risky over these areas, especially for those using small seacrafts.

— The Summit Express

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